Sunday, April 3, 2016

I'm worried that we'll go into a depression

Or so I hear someone say the other day.  I wondered where that came from, since most the economic indicators are getting better, not worse.  Of course, the person who said it, wasn't looking at economic indicators, but tapping into his own sense of foreboding -- that something is rotten in the state of US. I admit I am not in the habit of watching fox news, but for those who are, this sense of foreboding doom is a staple.  It's built partly on a clear enough logic.  First premise, everything Obama does is wrong.  Obama did such and such.  Such and such is wrong.  There has been enough said about the mental gymnastics that fox must perform on occasion to show that "such and such is wrong," but it seems it is never done without a sense of strident impending doom -- if this continues, God save us.  When Micheal Gearson writes that "the worst stereotype of the GOP is coming to life in the form of Donald Trump," there is more than a little "truthiness" in it despite all the GOP back-peddling of late. If fox news is the voice of American conservatism, then the donald has tapped into that strident sense of impending doom, of outrage with the emphasis on rage, and offers himself, the great and the wonderful, as the savior.

Building on the fox news syllogism, under the Obama administration, the economic indicators have improved.  Could it have happened faster?  Of course.  Could they be better?  Of course. Nevertheless, most economic indicators have improved, and were anyone in the white house OTHER than Obama (well, not Hillary, and especially not Sanders) -- let me start over, if a republican were in the white house, you know that fox news and bill o'reiley would be singing hosannahs.  But it's Obama, and everything that happens under his watch must, just must! be wrong, so the positive economic indicators must portend some lurking doom hidden in the shadows.   One cannot look to the mainstream indicators to find it, so one must look to the fringe.  Here's Jim Tankersly writing for the Post:

There is a theory on the fringes of economics and finance that the United States is riding another bubble, which is about to burst and plunge the economy into a deep recession. It is not a housing bubble, like the one that triggered the last recession, but a stock bubble, puffed up by years of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.  Few professional economic forecasters subscribe to that theory, but a few finance pundits do, and so, too, does Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump.

There could be some kernel of "truthiness" in this.   Markets have been propped up, and it may well be time to ease off on the quantitative easing, but the path chosen by the Obama administration has had some real success, particularly in the creation of jobs.  Could there be more?  Of course.  Could they show more wage growth?  Of course.  Nevertheless, if we are to maintain the sense of foreboding, the strident sense of imminent collapse, there must be something deeply wrong, and of course!  the quantitative easing that has assisted in the recovery itself must be wrong.    The donald has picked up on the unease and so now is pushing an economic theory of impending doom.  

I won't go into the specifics.  I could do little more than repeat what Tankersly has written.  It's not the specifics, however, that are important.  It is the tone.  We can do the math until we're blue in the face, but the math doesn't matter.  It's the tone.  So you get something like this:

I can fix it. I can fix it pretty quickly...I would do a tax cut. You have to do a tax cut. Because we’re the highest-taxed nation in the world.

Here I'm quoting the donald himself.  This is assertion without fact.  Here's a more progressive view from the Citizens for Tax Justice:

Of all the OECD countries, which are essentially the countries the U.S. trades with and competes with, only Chile and Mexico collect less taxes as a percentage of their overall economy (as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP).
This sharply contradicts the widely held view among many members of Congress that taxes are already high enough in the U.S. and that any efforts to reduce the federal deficit should therefore take the form of cuts in government spending.
Only Chile (21.2) and Mexico (19.7)  collected less taxes as a percentage of GDP than the US (24.0)?  Denmark (47.7) is the highest.   The tax numbers are from 2011.  I'm not 100% sure of their accuracy, since they come from a lobbying group, and I'm sure the relative measure of tax per GDP can be disputed, but I am 100% sure that we are NOT, by any measure, "the highest-taxed nation in the world."  If we entered into the dispute over the numbers, we would at least be arguing something that resembles fact, but to address tone with fact leaves one feeling insipid, powerless.  Who the hell does love the IRS?  Who the hell doesn't want a tax cut, if not for everyone, for themselves?  Who the hell doesn't feel pushed around?  Who the hell doesn't want to tell the IRS to go f--k themselves?   One imagines an accountant auditor, confronting a biker-supporter of the donald, complete with leathers and chains, saying, "well, sir, I must insist, in point of fact, you are wrong.  The US is one of the LEAST taxed nations as a percentage of GDP, among other things."  Who is going to kick whose ass?  And that's what this country needs?  Someone who is willing to kick some ass?  

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